Parametric and Parametrically Smoothed Distribution-Free Proportional Hazard Models with Discrete Data

This paper discusses discrete time proportional hazard models and suggests a new class of flexible hazard functions. Explicitly modeling the discreteness of data is important since standard continuous models are biased; allowing for flexibility in the hazard estimation is desirable since strong parametric restrictions are likely to be similarly misleading. Simulation compare continuous and discrete models when data are generated by grouping and demonstrate that simple approximations recover underlying hazards well and outperform nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates in term of mean squared error.     

The significance of mycotoxins in the framework of assessing workplace related risks

Mycotoxins are fungal metabolite which may in some cases exhibit a high health hazard potential. Mycotoxins can show carcinogenic, mutagenic, toxic, teratogenic or immunotoxic effects. Mycotoxin exposure in the workplace may occur through inhalation and skin contact,e.g. during occupational handling of organic matter such as livestock feed, food products, or waste. Various studies suggest that both acute and chronic effects can occur, depending at least on the exposure level. The magnitude of the potential health risks associated with a respiratory or dermal intake of mycotoxins has largely remained unclear to date. However, according to the directive 2000/54/EC on biological agents and the corresponding German Biological Agents Ordinance, employers are also required to consider the potential hazards posed by toxic effects of biological agents when assessing workplace risks. The aim of this article, therefore, is to present some basis information that should facilitate an evaluation of the significance of mycotoxins in the context of assessing workplace risks. It also provides suggestions for occupational health and safety measures.     

Evolving anisotropy and degree of elastolytic insult in abdominal aortic aneurysms: Potential clinical relevance?

Accurately estimating patient-specific rupture risk remains a primary challenge in timing interventions for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). By re-analyzing published biaxial mechanical testing data from surgically repaired human AAAs, material anisotropy emerged as a potentially important determinant of patient-specific lesion progression. That is, based on a new classification scheme, we discovered that anisotropic aneurysmal specimens correlated with increased patient age at surgery when compared with more isotropic specimens (79.7 vs. 70.9 years, p<0.002), despite no significant difference in maximum diameter. Furthermore, using an idealized axisymmetric, finite-element growth and remodeling model of AAA progression, we found that both the initial axial extent of elastin loss and ongoing damage to elastin in the shoulder region of the AAA directly affected the degree of anisotropy as the lesion evolved, with more extensive insults increasing the anisotropy. This effect appeared to be mediated by alterations in axial loading and subsequent differences in orientation of deposited collagen fibers. While the observed increased age before surgical intervention may suggest a potential benefit of anisotropic remodeling, future biaxial tests coupled with pre-surgical data on expansion rates and detailed theoretical analyses of the biostability of a lesion as a function of anisotropy will be required to verify its clinical relevance to patient-specific rupture risk.     

Positioning behaviour in fish shoals: a cost–benefit analysis

Shoal position can have a strong influence on individual fitness. Individuals in front positions of shoals were observed to have higher feeding rates than individuals elsewhere. Manipulation of nutritional state showed that hungry individuals had a stronger preference for front positions and that the duration of food-deprivation was positively correlated with the degree of the position preference. On the other hand, front positions (like other peripheral positions) probably incur costs in terms of increased predation risks. Experiments with Schreckstoff showed that frightened individuals seek the central part of the shoal. This suggests that individuals rotate their shoal positions according to the tradeoff between energy intake and predation risk.     

Decision analysis approach to risk/benefit evaluation in the ethical review of controlled human infection studies

Risks and benefit evaluation for controlled human infection studies, where healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to infectious agents to evaluate vaccine efficacy, should be explicit, systematic, thorough, and non-arbitrary. Decision analysis promotes these qualities using four steps: (1) determining explicit criteria and measures for evaluation, (2) identifying alternatives to the study, (3) defining the models used to estimate the measures for each alternative, and (4) running the models to produce the estimates and compare the alternatives. In this paper, we describe how decision analysis might be applied by funders and regulators, as well as by others contemplating the use of novel controlled human infection studies for vaccine development and evaluation.     

The impact of hybrids between genetically modified crop plants and their related species: general considerations

Factors influencing the fate and impact of hybrids between crop plants and their related species operate from the early zygote, through to plant establishment in different habitats, to their ability to form self-sustaining populations. Many of the classes of genes being introduced by modern methods of genetic modification are similar to those manipulated by conventional plant breeding. In assessing the impact of transgenes in hybrids between crops and related species, therefore, it is important to be informed about the consequences of hybridization between conventionally bred varieties and their relatives. Some transgenes will have novel effects (e.g. production of pharmaceutical substances or certain fatty acids) on plants, and are likely to need specific assessment studies to determine their impact on hybrids. This will be particularly important if there is the possibility of these transgenes becoming established in wild populations. Some recommendations for further research are outlined.     

Analysis and assessment of heavy metals pollution in soils around a Pb and Zn smelter in Baoji City,Northwest China

Soil heavy metal pollution from mining activities is potentially harmful to human health through the food chain. In this study, a total of 43 soil samples were collected from a depth of 0–20 cm from fields close to a Pb and Zn smelter. The samples were used to: 1) analyze the pollution level of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu) and spatial distribution pattern; 2) evaluate the degree of accumulation and enrichment, potential ecological risk, and human health risk; and 3) perform source apportionment in Fengxiang County, Shaanxi Province of China. The results showed that the concentration ranged from 43.67 to 189.55, 131.43 to 239.53, 74.77 to 112.25, and 24.69 to 37.71 mg·kg^?1 for Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu, respectively, and the mean concentration for Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu was 129.46, 192.85, 91.98 and 31.67 mg·kg^?1, respectively. The concentrations were greater than the Shaanxi Province background values, while they were lower than the second-level limits of Environmental Quality Standard for Soils of China (EQSS). The spatial distribution of heavy metal contents showed a banded in soil except Cu. The spatial distribution pattern and pollution assessment indexes (I_geo, EF) indicated that the investigated metals had been accumulated in the study areas, and implied significant influences from anthropogenic activities, local meteorological situation, and soil properties. The ecological risk assessment showed that the risks were relatively low (RI<150). Compared with the exposure risk for adults, that for children was significantly greater. The ingestion of heavy metals in the soils by humans was the main exposure pathway compared with the dermal exposure. There may be a risk of noncarcinogenic adverse health effects (HQ < 1, 0.377 ≤ HI≤1.553) on children, but the adults were unlikely to experience obvious adverse health effects (HQ < 1, HI < 1). The carcinogenic risk of Cr for adults and children was at an unacceptable level. The carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks were in the order of children > adults. The correlation analysis showed that Pb, Cr, and Cu have identical anthropogenic and natural sources, while Zn has another identical source. This study could provide a basis for the sustainable management of this region by reducing metal inputs and to protect soils from long-term heavy metal accumulation.